Texas Longhorns at Baylor Bears Betting Pick & Prediction

A couple of familiar Big 12 foes from the state of Texas meet this Saturday, as the Texas Longhorns head to Waco to square off against the Baylor Bears. The Bears are ranked 13th in the country and look to win out over Texas and Kansas to finish their regular-season schedule. The Longhorns have lost two of their last three, taking losses to TCU and Iowa State, while beating Kansas State in between.

It looks like Texas will head into the contest short-handed on both sides of the ball, as sophomore corner Anthony Cook and senior wideout Collin Johnson are doubtful for Saturday’s matchup. Baylor took its first loss of the season last week against No. 8 Oklahoma, likely knocking it out of the College Football Playoff picture. The Bears will still get a great bowl game, barring any catastrophes the next two weeks. Baylor is favored by six points in this duel, while the over/under sits at 60 points.

Alright, Alright, Alright …

Just as the Longhorns’ biggest fan, Matthew McConaughey, would say, Texas’ season has been just alright. The Longhorns have had losses to ranked opponents LSU and Oklahoma, as well as unranked TCU and Iowa State. Junior quarterback Sam Ehlinger has led the way, and his numbers are up this season pretty much across the board. Completion percentage, passer rating, yards per completion, you name it, and Ehlinger’s numbers are likely up.

Sophomore rusher Keaontay Ingram is having a decent season as well, as he’s already racked up 847 total yards on the season, including 642 yards on the ground. From a numbers perspective, the Longhorns’ offense has lived up to expectations; it’s their defense allowing nearly identical numbers which has hurt them. And it doesn’t look to get much better with the Cook injury.

Return To Prominence

After scandals had wrecked Baylor’s program over the last few years, the Bears have returned to prominence this season and have overall been one of the best teams in the nation. Junior quarterback Charlie Brewer is completing nearly 67 percent of his passes and has a passer rating of an insane 156.5. Baylor’s passing defense only allows 219 yards per game and could come out and negate Ehlinger’s attack.

Baylor’s defense allows nearly 100 fewer total yards than that of Texas, as it also only allows 136 yards on the ground. Their only loss this season came at home last week to the Sooners, but you can bet they will come out fired up at home, looking to beat their cross-state rivals. And a fired-up Bears defense spells trouble for the Longhorns.

Go With The Flow

This is another contest that it is best not to overthink. Six points isn’t that wide of a spread, and even if it were a bit greater, Baylor’s defense has been sharp enough to slow Texas down. Texas’ defense is the big question headed into Saturday. Can they keep within striking distance of a quarterback with a nearly perfect passer rating on the season?

It seems looking into the numbers doesn’t help the Longhorns’ case much. The pick here is the Bears to win and cover the spread, and, although I’m firmly against betting the under in college football, keep in mind it’s at 50. If you were ever going to bet the under, this may be the time. So head to NewCasinos.org to find a bookie and get your bet down.